Goal

There are countless theories in the behavioral sciences that attempt to describe the mechanisms underpinning well-being, but these theories - and the research behind them - are rarely examined in combination such that apples-to-apples comparisons can be made across them. The goal of this project is to understand the relative contribution of each of these strategies to human well-being so that we can prioritize more effective strategies and make a greater impact. As such, we propose a systematic mega-study to unlock human flourishing.
We will compare the differential effect of a wide range of flourishing strategies such as gratitude, kindness, social connection and altruism, physical exercise, sleep, meditation and mindfulness, time affluence, sex and intimacy, digital detox, perceived purpose and meaning in life, and connection with nature.
The ultimate goal is to develop a well-being intervention tool that makes personalized recommendations to help people live their best lives. Through pilot research in the Discovery phase, a mega-experiment and advanced analytics in the Development phase, and widespread dissemination of the intervention tool in the Launch phase, we aim to leverage our expertise in the behavioral sciences and interdisciplinary partnerships to further humanity's cognitive, affective, social, and spiritual well-being.

Opportunity

A great deal of research examines a diverse array of contributors to human flourishing. However, despite this abundance of studies, there is no system to connect, compare, and tie the research together. Fortunately, recent methodological advances in the behavioral sciences promise a path for better comparison of well-being strategies.
The emergence of mega-studies (e.g., see the Behavior Change for Good initiative) where many hypotheses are tested in a very large sample with a single dependent variable (in our case, human flourishing), allows researchers to understand the full landscape of impact and uncover psychographic variables that differentially impact outcomes.

Roadblocks

We plan to bring on expert partners from each strategic domain, including the Behavior Change for Good team and researchers in flourishing and well-being research such as Laurie Santos, Ed Diener, Sonja Lyubomirsky, Martin Seligman, Mike Norton, and Elizabeth Dunn, in order to guide the competing flourishing hypotheses tested. We will partner with a technology platform, Pattern Health, in which Duke is a part-owner, to support Development and Launch.
External partnerships inherently add additional dependencies and risk, as we have less control over colleagues outside our organization. This risk may present roadblocks, but can be mitigated with planning and foresight.

Breakthroughs Needed

The risk of external partnerships would be mitigated by oversampling potential partners, keeping key operations within our organization's control, and instituting professional relationship management.
Fortunately, we at Duke University's Center for Advanced Hindsight have positive working relationships with these academic colleagues and our industry partners at Pattern Health, and we also have a staff of 50+ behavioral researchers in our Center to carry the day-to-day activities of the project.
Moreover, we believe that the benefits of collaboration outweigh the risks of dependencies. By partnering with other researchers, institutions, and companies, the project will incorporate many different types of thinkers and perspectives, becoming truly interdisciplinary.
Another benefit of having many different stakeholders is that we will have competing hypotheses, a hallmark of more robust research findings in the era of open science. Mega-studies often incorporate a "tournament" element where participating researchers pit their favored theories against others while co-designing experimental arms such that adversarial collaborators agree on the methods while maintaining differences in their hypotheses. Mega-studies add rigor and truth where smaller studies are more likely to be imbued with bias. By following open science best practices and learnings from previous mega-studies, we can overcome the roadblocks inherent in multiple collaborations.

Key Indicators of Success

In three phases (Discovery, Development, and Launch), we plan to undertake an ambitious project to understand the behavioral strategies leading to human flourishing.
At Year 3, we will be successful if we have established at least 5 partnerships and completed the pilot study. At Year 5, we will be successful if we have designed the intervention and begun collecting data for the mega-study. At Year 10, we will be successful if we have launched a tool that can provide personalized recommendations that can help people improve their well-being at an individualized level more effectively than any previous one-size-fits-all recommendations.

Additional Information

At Duke University's Center for Advanced Hindsight, our mission is to make people happier, healthier and wealthier with behavioral science, primarily in the domains of health and financial decision-making. The proposed three-phase project to conduct a systematic mega-study to unlock human flourishing fits squarely within our mission, and our relevant experience will be essential to the success of the project.
The Center for Advanced Hindsight is uniquely equipped to lead this interdisciplinary project, as we have a great deal of experience with complex, multi-partner projects. (See, for example, our Common Cents Lab, which works with industry, nonprofit and government partners to design, test, and implement solutions to increase the financial well-being for low- to moderate-income people living in the United States and abroad. To date, the Common Cents Lab's financial health work has reached more than 6 million low-income individuals in 42 countries.)
We have established relationships across academia and the for-profit world, and will leverage these connections to bring this ambitious project to fruition. Leading researchers studying happiness, well-being and flourishing will be invited to participate in this interdisciplinary project, including but not limited to Laurie Santos, Ed Diener, Sonja Lyubomirsky, Martin Seligman, Mike Norton, Elizabeth Dunn, Carol Graham, Jamil Zaki, Katy Milkman, Angela Duckworth, Paul Dolan and Barbara Fredrickson. Researchers within the Center for Advanced Hindsight who could lead this project include Dan Ariely, Aline Holzwarth, Mariel Beasley, and Jan Willem Lindemans, in addition to our staff of 50+ behavioral researchers.
We firmly believe that the emergence of mega-studies will be game-changing to the behavioral sciences, which have struggled with the replication crisis and faulty data analysis methods. Though mega-studies are an ambitious undertaking, the benefits are unparalleled.